Bilic is back: bravery and belief underpin second coming as Croatia manager

At the 78th minute on Czech soil, Luka Modric put the ball in the net and did not run to the corner to celebrate. He walked straight to the touchline, where Slaven Bilic stood with both arms raised, and embraced the 58-year-old man who had just returned after 23 months out of work. For a national team that has twice stood on the World Cup podium, a 2-1 win in the Nations League is not something to make a fuss about. But that embrace is worth recording. It says Croatia is not merely changing a manager. It is changing a belief.

Zlatko Dalic left the post after nearly a decade in which he built the most successful era in this country's football history: runners-up at the 2026 World Cup, third place at the 2026 World Cup. His team played a very Croatian formula: wait, accept the underdog role, then strike lethally on the counter. When Bilic took over, he declared he wanted the opposite. He wants his side to impose the game, press high, take risks, and send more players into the opposition box.

This is not a small tweak. It is a top-down identity change. And it comes exactly as Croatia enters a run described as fixture hell: away to Czechia, away to Spain, then England at home in Rijeka.

The most concrete tactical signal Bilic has given lies in the build-up from the back. He wants his centre-backs to step up with the ball, rather than waiting for Modric or Kovacic to drop deep to the edge of the box to receive it. It sounds small, but the consequences are large. When a centre-back pushes up, the defensive line follows, space opens behind, and the pressure on midfield eases.

That explains why Bilic chose it. He is trying to stretch the dependence on Modric, reducing the physical load on the 41-year-old in the build-up phase, to keep him for the decisive moments. That is an age-management problem, not just a tactical one.

But here is the central contradiction. Bilic is building a system that demands fitness and high intensity, while the squad still revolves around a veteran spine: Modric at 41, Kovacic, Perisic. A high press needs young legs and fast recovery between matches. A veteran back line asked to push up will be exposed by pace in behind.

The first two matches gave two opposing signals. The 2-1 win in Czechia showed the new model can produce results, and Modric was still the scorer. The 4-1 defeat in Spain showed the reverse: against a vastly superior opponent, the risky approach was punished plainly. It must be said that Bilic rotated heavily for the Spain match, so it is not a fair benchmark. But it cannot be dismissed entirely either.

On data, both matches lack process metrics such as xG or PPDA. So any conclusion about Bilic's model remains qualitative. With two matches, the sample is too small to assert anything.

Based on my experience tracking these matches, this is the kind of change that rarely succeeds from the start. A team moving from counter-attacking to control does not just change a formation, it changes an instinct. Players must relearn when to take risks and when to wait. With a spine that has played the old way for nearly a decade, that relearning is even harder.

At 63, I have seen enough to know that an era does not die from a defeat; it dies when people stop telling its story. The Dalic era did not end because he left the post. It ends only if Croatia stops believing in what it once represented. And that is exactly what Bilic is trying to change.

The most notable thing is not tactical. It is that Bilic admits he is no longer the manager he was. A man who has just claimed he can match Dalic's achievements, while also conceding he has changed. That self-awareness is a healthy sign, but it also opens a gap between ambition and reality.

In Croatia, the yardstick is not a win over Czechia. The yardstick is a World Cup semifinal and final. No coach finds it easy to succeed Dalic, and anyone in that seat is measured against an almost impossible standard. Snow falling on the summit of glory is like the truth: light, quiet, and it whitens every legend.

There is another point rarely mentioned. Bilic had not worked for 23 months. That gap is both a plus and a risk. It may make him hungrier to prove himself, more flexible in negotiations. But it may also mean his tactical sharpness and network have partly decayed.

The relationship between Bilic and Modric is the quiet key to the whole story. Inside the squad, Modric remains an irreplaceable reference point. Some suggest Bilic may be the only one who could convince Modric to keep playing for the national team. If that is true, Bilic's authority comes partly from keeping his captain, not only from tactics.

But that is also the biggest risk. A team whose creativity and inspiration still depend on a 41-year-old is a fragile team. When Modric is gone, Croatia will have to answer a question it has postponed for years: who comes next?

The current optimism in Croatia is real. But fresh air usually lasts only until results return to normal. The England match in Rijeka will be the first test heavy enough to reveal the true identity of this team. If Bilic fails to match Dalic, the very framing that he laid the foundation today could be reused as a nostalgic shield tomorrow. And what is worth watching is not whether he wins, but whether Croatia still tells its story the old way.